The Use of Backtesting in Assessment of the Value-at-Risk on Unites States, Great Britain and German Capital Markets
The Use of Backtesting in Assessment of the Value-at-Risk on Unites States, Great Britain and German Capital Markets

Author(s): Tomáš Meluzín, Marcin Fałdziński, Michał Bernard Pietrzak, Adam P. Balcerzak, Marek Zinecker
Subject(s): National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Transformation Period (1990 - 2010), Present Times (2010 - today), Financial Markets, Globalization
Published by: Masarykova univerzita nakladatelství
Keywords: capital market; value-at-risk; backtesting; DCC-GARCH model; conditional variance;
Summary/Abstract: For many years, a progressive globalization process has been observed, which translates into an increase in interdependencies between world economies. This growing level of interdependence affects the functioning of economies significantly. The greatest impact of mutual connections can be observed on the world capital markets. Therefore, the issue of the identification and measurement of market risk becomes an important problem related to the functioning of capital markets. Value at Risk is a metric that allows the risk of loss for selected assets to be assessed. The research objective of this article is to assess the quality of Value at Risk applied to measure the risk of the DJIA, DAX, and FTSE stock indices. The VaR estimation was carried out in the time period 2000-2012, where the DCC-GARCH model with the conditional Student’s t-distribution was used. To evaluate VaR quality, the backtesting procedure was used, within which we used the Juc, Jind, and Jcc tests.

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