Bosnien und Herzegowina: Von der Krise in den Krieg?
Bosnia and Herzegovina: From Crises to War?

Summary/Abstract: In autumn 2009, on the occasion of a deep political crisis, both media and academics not only in Bosnia and Herzegovina discussed whether there could be a new war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Indeed, the situation resembled the circumstances which had led to Yugoslavia’s collapse in the early 1990s. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that a war similar to that in the years 1992 to 1995 will break out. The potential warring parties lack the weapons for waging such a big war, are supervised by international peacekeeping troops, and have small chances of setting through their political objectives by military means. Moreover, the political elites know that a new war would endanger their wealth and power. Looking at the destabilization since 2006, however, political violence has become more likely. A plausible scenario is an armed conflict following the patterns of Northern Ireland in the 1970s.

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