Prognozowanie bankructwa a koniunktura gospodarcza
Bankruptcy Prediction Models and Business Cycles

Summary/Abstract: The paper presents the problem of predicting bankruptcy in changing business cycles. A firm’s bankruptcy risk depends on the quality of management, the firm’s efficiency and other internal microeconomic factors as well as on macroeconomic external factors, which the business cycle is one measure of. Classical bankruptcy prediction models have focused on only internal factors in the form of financial ratios. Our main conclusion is that some measures of the business cycle situation should be included in bankruptcy prediction models. Our research shows that there are significant links between firm bankruptcies and the business cycle, and that the global economic situation strongly affects the risk of bankruptcy. Some regional and sectoral differences in bankruptcy risk are also evident in the Polish economy. Our research has allowed us to created bankruptcy prediction models that use business cycle synthetic measures.

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