Ekonomik Güven Endeksi ile Yatırım Araçları Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto Yaklaşımı
The Causality Relationship Between the Economic Confidence Index and Investment Instruments: The Toda-Yamamoto Approach

Summary/Abstract: Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causality between the economic confidence index and investment instruments. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, using the monthly data for January 2007-June 2019 period, the existence and direction of the relationship between the economic confidence index and BIST 100, USD/TL exchange rate and gold prices is examined by Toda-Yamamoto approach. Findings: As a result of the study, it is determined that there is no causality relationship from BİST100 index to economic confidence index and there is a one way relationship from BİST100 index to economic confidence index. Conversely, while the one-way causality relationship is observed from USD / TL exchange rate to economic confidence index, it is observed that there is no causality relationship between gold prices and economic confidence index.

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