Türkiye için Enflasyonun ve Phillips Eğrisinin Gözlenemeyen Bileşen Modelleri ile İncelenmesi
The Investigation of Inflation and Phillips Curve for Turkey with Unobserved
Component Model
Author(s): Şenay Üçdoğruk Birecikli, Eda Yalçın KayacanSubject(s): National Economy, Economic history, Transformation Period (1990 - 2010), Present Times (2010 - today), Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Keywords: Unobservable Component Models; State Space Models; Kalman Filter; Inflation;
Summary/Abstract: Unobserved component models; which are directly formulated in terms of the unobservable components that represent important characteristics of series such as trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components. The so-called models provide us to interpret in terms of each components, to obtain unobserved variables and to predict by preserving the originality of the series. In this study, inflation, which is one of the basic macroeconomic variables, was examined by using the patterns of unobserved component models and statistical theories based on the so-called models. Then, Phillips Curve was predicted. Unobserved variables such as the output gap and the natural unemployment rate required for the Phillips Curve estimation were also obtained based on the method in question. In the analysis, the data of GDP, unemployment and inflation for Turkey were used the period for 1998: Q1- 2016: Q2. The findings showed that the Phillips curve isn’t valid for Turkey.
Journal: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
- Issue Year: 18/2020
- Issue No: 02
- Page Range: 64-72
- Page Count: 9
- Language: Turkish