Fluctuations in the seasonality of employment in Poland
Fluctuations in the seasonality of employment in Poland

Summary/Abstract: Seasonality concerns relatively regular changes in economic variables in the short-term perspective. In empirical studies, seasonality tends to be omitted or eliminated from time series. The aim of the study is to analyze the variation in seasonality of the average number of employees in the enterprise sector in Poland. An attempt is made to determine the size and tendency of changes in the seasonality of average employment in the enterprise sector and their distribution throughout the year. The analysis also concerns a comparison of seasonal fluctuations in the average employment estimated for Poland with seasonal fluctuations in the average employment in the regional markets of Polish provinces (voivodships). The study uses quarterly data on the average number of employees in the enterprise sector for Poland and for regional markets. The period of analysis spanned from 2008 to 2016. The data comes from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in Poland. The Census X-12 ARIMA model was used to derive the seasonal component. Obtained results indicate that the seasonality of average employment in the enterprise sector in Poland is small, albeit showing an upward trend. The distribution of fluctuations in seasonal employment in the enterprise sector throughout the year in Poland and in selected provinces is similar. In some provinces, there is no seasonality of average employment in the enterprise sector.

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