The international balance of power in the year 2050 Cover Image

The international balance of power in the year 2050

Author(s): Piotr Mikulski, Mirosław Sułek
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences
Published by: Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego
Keywords: układ sił; stosunki międzynarodowe; system międzynarodowy; stosunki sił; relacje sił; polityka zagraniczna; Charles F. Doran;

Summary/Abstract: The international balance of power is the most signifi cant feature of the international system, and therefore it is important not only to know its current status but also its future potential. This article attempts to predict shifts in the international balance of power that may take place by 2050. To do this, the authors calculate indicators of power using a model based on projected GDP and population fi gures which are taken from economic and demographic development forecasts produced by four institutions: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Japan Center for Economic Research, Goldman Sachs and Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales. A cycle of power model is also used. The results portray a world in which the dominant powers will be the USA, China, the EU and India. Japan and Russia will have been marginalized. Brazil will have grown somewhat in strength, but will still be signifi cantly weaker than the main actors. A multi-polar world is taking shape.

  • Issue Year: 39/2009
  • Issue No: 1-2
  • Page Range: 73-93
  • Page Count: 21
  • Language: Polish