On the Need for Cognitive Closure and Judgmental Trend Forecasting
On the Need for Cognitive Closure and Judgmental Trend Forecasting

Summary/Abstract: The paper considers the following hypothesis: humans’ need for cognitive closure reduces the usage of historical observations in judgmental forecasts only in horizontal trends. To test this hypothesis, three studies were conducted. In each, participants forecasted the next, unknown observation using the previous time series. The analysis concentrated on trend analysis and how the trends in historical data are used as the basis for forecasting depending on psychological traits, in particular cognitive closure.

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