Metoda barometrów ekonomicznych w prognozowaniu koniunktury gospodarczej (na przykładzie rynku usług ubezpieczeniowych)
The Economic Barometers Method in Forecasting Economic Situation (on the Example of the Market for Insurance Services)

Summary/Abstract: In development of every economy, there take place changes in the level of economic activity, which manifest themselves in more or less regular economic fluctuations. Knowledge of those fluctuations, hence their duration, amplitude of fluctuations, and especially of the moment of occurrence of turning points in the business cycle, are of nontrivial importance for carrying out a reasonable economic policy both in the scale of entire state and individual enterprises. There are many methods of business research, and one of them is the method of economic barometers. Therefore, an aim of considerations is to discuss methodological grounds of this method, supplemented with examples of the constructed barometers related to the sector of insurance services. The empirical part of the methodological and research article is based on the statistical data describing the financial market in Poland as well as the qualitative data provided by surveys by the method of business trend survey carried out by the Chair of Marketing Research of the Poznań University of Economics.

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