BEZPIECZEŃSTWO DEMOGRAFCZNE EUROPY W XXI WIEKU
DEMOGRAPHIC SECURITY OF EUROPE IN 21ST CENTURY

Summary/Abstract: Population size and structure belong to essential factors impacting power of a country.The expected decline in population size and aging suggest that the marginalisation of theinfluence of Europe on world affairs may continue, and the unevenness of demographicchange among European countries may lead to the new balance of power on thecontinent itself. The goal of the article is the analysis of impact of the projecteddemographic changes on the evolution of the balance of power in Europe in the 21stcentury and the identification of the new balance of power by the end of the century.The article provides overview of methodology of development of demographic projections,based on an approach of the United Nations Population Division. The article presentsdifferent scenarios for changes in population size of the World and Europe in 2100,based on different assumptions of the UN Population Division’s population projections.Further the article provides scenarios for changes in population size and age structure ofEuropean countries and major powers in the international system. Based on that thearticle outlines scenarios of change in the regional balance of power by the end of the 21stcentury and identifies countries with rising power status, that include United Kingdomand France, and countries with declining status, including Germany and Poland.Adopting nondeterministic approach the article finally outlines framework for policyaction to provide demographic security, from the perspective of the countries of Easternand Southern Europe, which are expected to be affected most by demographic change.

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