UKŁAD SIŁ NA BLISKIM WSCHODZIE. KLUCZOWI AKTORZY KONFLIKTU SYRYJSKIEGO
THE BALANCE OF POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. THE KEY ACTORS OF SYRIAN CONFLICT

Summary/Abstract: The analysis and assessment of the situation with regard to key players (state and private) as well as quantitative and qualitative assessment of the power of states, leads to the general conclusion that the Syrian conflict is international, and its solution is important for the interests of certain global and regional powers that want to retain or take over dominance in the region. The future of the Assad regime is rather uncertain, although it is yet strong and determined to pacify the protests and maintenance regime using the strong support of the security apparatus. One possible scenario is the solution without the participation of external actors, which involve the transfer of power to a family of Assad. In this way, security would be guaranteed Alawites, ensured stability in the country and preserve the balance of power in the region. Syria is an important element for further developments in the Middle East and regulations shape the future of power also for the entire region. Currently, the manner and the time horizon solution to the conflict is difficult to predict. In addition, acts of aggression on the part of the territory of Turkey, Syria, give indications of possible escalation of the conflict, as a consequence, can lead to a military solution, and thus substantially affect the change of power in the region.

• Details
• Contents