WYBRANE ASPEKTY PROGNOZOWANIA Z WYKORZYSTANIEM KLASYCZNYCH MODELI TRENDU
SELECTED ASPECTS OF FORECASTING WITH THE APPLICATION OF CLASSICAL TREND MODELS
Author(s): Jan PurczyńskiContributor(s): Ewa Stefanowska (Translator)
Subject(s): Economy, Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
Published by: Wydawnictwo Naukowe Uniwersytetu Szczecińskiego
Keywords: predicting with the application of classical trend models; polynomial trend; power trend;
Summary/Abstract: In this paper selected aspects of forecasting with the application of classical trend models are examined. Furthermore the possibility of making a wrong forecast for polynomial and power trends is pointed out. In the case of the polynomial trend, the risk results from the fact that the forecast exhibiting a very small value of ex ante may be burdened with a very large value of ex post. As far as the power trend is considered, there is the risk that the theoretical distribution will not fit empirical data, which is caused by estimating the value of the index (power) (equation (6)) b < 1 instead of the correct value b > 1.
Journal: Studia i Prace WNEIZ US
- Issue Year: 2014
- Issue No: 36/2
- Page Range: 119-130
- Page Count: 12
- Language: Polish