ZASTOSOWANIE MODELI TRENDU DO PROJEKCJI OPŁACALNOŚCI PRODUKCJI MLEKA
W PERSPEKTYWIE ŚREDNIOTERMINOWEJ
USE OF TREND MODELS FOR PROJECTION OF PROFITABILITY OF MILK PRODUCTION IN THE MID-TERM PERSPECTIVE
Author(s): Aldona Skarżyńska, Konrad JabłońskiSubject(s): Economy, Agriculture, Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation
Published by: Szkoła Główna Gospodarstwa Wiejskiego w Warszawie
Keywords: projection; trend models; profitability of milk production;
Summary/Abstract: The aim of the study is to determine the change in the profitability of milk production in Poland until 2020 year in regional breakdown. To prepare the projections classical models of development trend have been used. Due to the volatility of milk prices over time (+/-8.7%) different variants of the projection were developed. The results show that in 2020 compared to 2015 the growth of revenues will be stronger than the growth of costs and as a result the profitability of milk production will be higher (from 11.2 to 17.2 percentage points). However, estimation also shows that profitability of milk production in 2020 will be lower than in 2014 (from 1.6 to 6.8 pp). Only in the favorable projection variant (increase of milk price by 8.7%), profitability will be higher than in 2014.
Journal: Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych
- Issue Year: XVII/2016
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 84-97
- Page Count: 14
- Language: Polish