Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union
Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union

Summary/Abstract: The main goal of this research is to model and predict the fiscal pressure indicator and the real GDP rate in the European Union during 1996-2013 using the vectorial autoregressive approach. According to Granger test for causality, only the real GDP rate is a cause of the weight tax in GDP, the relationship not being reciprocal. The fiscal pressure volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, but the influence decreases in time, not descending under 82%. More than 41% of the variation in real growth is explained by the fiscal pressure volatility starting with the 6th lag. The static and deterministic simulation generated the best predictions of the fiscal pressure indicator on the horizon 2011-2013.

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