Retail loans in the banking systems of Serbia, Croatia, and Macedonia with special emphasis of retail portfolio of Macedonian banks
Retail loans in the banking systems of Serbia, Croatia, and Macedonia with special emphasis of retail portfolio of Macedonian banks

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the movements and quality of retail loan portfolio in banking systems of three sample Balkan countries. The quality of retail credit portfolio is important because is determinant of future credit growth and at the end influences on consumption in the economy. Another important aspect is the growth in past crisis years, at which products is achieved and is there trend in accumulation of future risks. The analysis will be focused to compare data for trends of growth and quality of retail portfolio in Macedonia, Serbia and Croatia. The comparative analysis will give answers for the different share structure of products in retail portfolio, different trends of movements and quality of portfolio measured through NPL ratios by products. Also the analysis should give answers for drivers that are key factors of vulnerability of retail portfolio which can be input for further strategies of development in retail segment. The retail portfolios in sample countries that are chosen, had similar rates of growth before the financial crisis, the banking systems are dominantly owned by foreign countries and the economies were influenced by the financial crisis. Still, Macedonian retail portfolio has trend of growth in the past 3-4 years, opposite of Serbian and Croatian portfolios and the quality of the portfolio is much better. Special emphasis will be given on future risks in Macedonian retail portfolio, given the opposite trends from the sample countries.

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