Egyptský coup ďétat 2013: předvídatelný důsledek politického vývoje
The Egyptian Coup ďÉtat in 2013: Predictable Consequence of Political Development

Summary/Abstract: The article aims to identify conditions that most likely result in a military coup, first and foremost the Egyptian one of summer 2013. These conditions are defined in the first part of the article on the basis of previous political, economic, and security developments in the country. Searching for the causality is specially focused on four independent variables; the most often cited factors in literature of the same object: delegitimization of the regime, economic crisis, conflict between the interests of the government and the armed forces, and favorable international context. Causality between the set of four variables and coup implementation is verified (next three article’s parts) by comparative analysis of 2013 Egyptian coup and other ten coups, which were carried out by the armed forces of Turkey (1960, 1971, 1980, 1997), Pakistan (1958, 1969, 1977, 1999) and Egypt (1952, 2011). Finally, the influence of these variables on the likelihood of a coup ďétat is derived from the frequency of their occurrence in the studied population. This possibility/impossibility to predict the Egyptian revolution of 2013 results from the likelihood by the way. The article is the first output of the future research of military coups, primarily focusing on states of the Muslim world.

• Details
• Contents