Skrivena povijest – tajnoviti svijet brojki
A hidden history: the mysterious world of numbers

Summary/Abstract: The author discusses some of the statistical methods that may be used to obtain new knowledge and contribute towards the study of the economic history of Slavonian estates and, more widely, Slavonia in the late seventeenth and the first halfof the eighteenth centuries. By comparing data acquired from sources of different types and using a variety of quantitative methods, one may be able to acquire information that throws new light upon the economic history of Slavonia. Of course, while using certain quantitative methods scholars may also encounter problems that arise from the ways in which studied sources were produced. Archival sources from the late seventeenth and the first half of the eighteenth century come from a ‘pre-statistical’ era, which hinders a good-quality use of statistical methods. Furthermore, certain quantitative methods, such as fixedbase index, cannot be used because of the lack of archival documents. Registers of personal names are difficult to analyze as the same individuals are occasionally listed under different names. Nonetheless, the use of certain quantitative methods has contributed to the acquisition of new knowledge in the study of the economic history of Slavonia in the late seventeenth and the first half of the eighteenth centuries. For instance, measures of central tendency make possible an assessment of economic progress over a long time period. One should, however, should keep in mind that arithmetic mean has its drawbacks caused by the quality of information obtained from sources (for example: the number of households without the cattle numbers or the number of arable fields under cultivation). Standard deviation, as a statistical measure, could be used as an indicator of social stratification over a certain time-period. This statistical measure too has its drawbacks as it is not possible to determine the arithmetic mean for all of the Slavonian estates—and therefore it is not possible to find out the standard deviation for all the estates, that is, all of Slavonia. Yet by grouping data into categories (one criterion may be the number of horses) scholars could use this method to evaluate social stratification. Using data visualization tools, the author presents the results of regression analysis. By drawing a straight line through the arithmetic mean of the fields under cultivation and the arithmetic mean of the number of oxen, the author has been able to show the ability of the population to cultivate the arable land in their possession. All the problems arising from the poor quality of archival sources nothwithstanding, the use of these quantitative methods makes possible the acquisition of new knowledge, throwing new light upon a variety of phenomena found in economic history.

• Details
• Contents