An Econometric Model of General Government Deficit Cover Image

Ekonometryczny model deficytu sektora instytucji rządowych i samorządowych
An Econometric Model of General Government Deficit

Author(s): Jarosław Mielcarek
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie
Keywords: econometric model; multiple linear regression; general government deficit; deficit growth rate; inflation rate

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of the article is to determine the quantitative relationship between the dependent variable, which is the general government deficit, and the explanatory variables using two dynamic econometric models. For the first model, the rate of inflation and the rate of deficit growth explained 80% of the variability in the deficit. When the model was tested at a significance level of 0.05 using an F-test, t-test, p-values and the correlation between the explanatory variables it was shown that these independent variables were significant. Three explanatory variables were added in the second model: GDP growth rate, deficit acceleration and deficit. As a result of this change, the coefficient of determination rose to 90%. Testing the model at a significance level of 0.05 showed that the added explanatory variables were not significant. The insignificance of the GDP growth rate as an explanatory variable for the deficit did not confirm the claim that in the 2008–2013 sub-period there was a sharp increase in the deficit due to the economic downturn. It was found, based on the Durbin-Watson statistics value for a model with two explanatory variables, that the null hypothesis that there is no autocorrelation of residuals could not be rejected.

  • Issue Year: 932/2014
  • Issue No: 08
  • Page Range: 45-62
  • Page Count: 18
  • Language: Polish