Dynamics and Prospects of Population Aging in Romania
Dynamics and Prospects of Population Aging in Romania

Summary/Abstract: Population aging is one of the most important demographic trends in Romania, reflecting similar processes at European level, but also showing specific particularities at national and urban level. This paper analyzes the dynamics of demographic aging both at national level and in large cities, aiming to identify the main trends, determinants and socio-economic implications. The analysis is based on statistical data provided by Eurostat and the National Institute of Statistics, using indicators such as age structure, elderly dependency ratio and population evolution. Particular attention is paid to the post-1990 period, characterized by major demographic transformations, including declining fertility, increasing life expectancy and increasing external migration. This study investigates the structural transformations of the population in the context of advanced demographic transition and contemporary socio-economic pressures. The research analyses the evolution of key indicators of demographic ageing — the old-age dependency ratio, the ageing index and life expectancy — based on national and European statistical data series, complemented by medium- and long-term demographic projections. The results highlight a significant acceleration of the ageing process, driven by the decline in fertility below replacement level, the increase in longevity and the external migration of the young active population. These trends are leading to a reconfiguration of the age structure, with major implications for the labour market, the sustainability of pension systems and health services. The prospective analysis indicates a continuous increase in the share of the elderly population, concomitant with the reduction of the active population base, which amplifies demographic and economic imbalances. The paper proposes an integrated approach, combining quantitative methods of demographic modeling with socio-economic interpretations, to assess the long-term impact of population aging. Alternative scenarios based on public policies regarding the stimulation of birth rates, attracting migration and prolonging working life are also discussed. The conclusions of this paper emphasize the need for multidimensional strategic interventions to mitigate the negative effects of demographic aging, as well as to capitalize on the potential of the elderly population within the economy. The study contributes to the specialized literature through a comprehensive and updated analysis of demographic dynamics in Romania, providing empirical support for the substantiation of public policies oriented towards sustainability and intergenerational balance.

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