COMPARATIVE WIND FARM SUITABILITY ANALYSIS OF KÜTAHYA DISTRICTS BASED ON WASP SIMULATIONS
COMPARATIVE WIND FARM SUITABILITY ANALYSIS OF KÜTAHYA DISTRICTS BASED ON WASP SIMULATIONS

Summary/Abstract: Wind resource assessment is an essential step in identifying suitable locations and reducing uncertainty in wind farm investments. In this study, wind energy potential was comparatively evaluated for five districts of Kütahya Province, Türkiye: Altıntaş, Aslanapa, Dumlupınar, Gediz, and Simav. Wind speed and direction measurements were analyzed using Weibull distributions, with parameters estimated by the Modified Maximum Likelihood, Median and Quartiles, Moment, and WAsP methods. The performance of these methods was evaluated using R², COEF, RMSE, and MAE. Wind roses, spatial wind-speed distributions, wind power density, and ΔRIX were further examined to assess both wind resource availability and terrain complexity. Five wind turbine models were compared in terms of annual energy production for each district. Although Simav exhibited high energy-production potential, its relatively complex terrain conditions were less favorable. Aslanapa provided a more balanced combination of wind resource potential and terrain suitability and was therefore selected for detailed wind farm analysis. A 42 MW wind farm consisting of 14 turbines was subsequently simulated using WAsP. The proposed layout resulted in an annual energy production of 107.567 GWh, a capacity factor of 29.2%, and an overall wake loss of 1.85%. A simplified economic assessment was also conducted to examine the effects of investment cost, discount rate, and electricity selling price. Under the base-case assumptions of 1500 USD/kW specific CAPEX, an 8% discount rate, and a 25-year project lifetime, the LCOE was estimated at 70.48 USD/MWh, while the NPV was −0.56 million USD, indicating that the project operates close to the economic breakeven point. Overall, the results demonstrate the importance of jointly considering wind resources, terrain characteristics, turbine performance, and economic conditions in preliminary wind farm planning.

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