İklim Krizi Çağında Nükleer Caydırıcılık: Stratejik İstikrar ve Kriz Dinamikleri
Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Climate Crisis: Strategic Stability and Crisis Dynamics

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the mechanisms through which climate change is linked to nuclear deterrence in the existing literature and identifies the principal analytical gaps that remain. The study relies on a transparent semi-systematic literature review covering Turkish and English publications indexed in Web of Science, Scopus, TR Dizin, and DergiPark for the period 2003–2026. The final synthesis corpus consists of 33 core studies and 10 foundational texts used for conceptual scaffolding, and sources are classified by type, role, and evidentiary weight. The review shows that the literature clusters around four themes: (1) climate-related vulnerabilities of nuclear infrastructure; (2) crisis management, command-and-control, and miscalculation risks; (3) budgetary priorities, geopolitical competition, and proliferation dynamics; and (4) debates on the climatic consequences of nuclear war and justice. The article argues that climate change reshapes nuclear deterrence not only through its direct effects on bases and facilities but also by making the strategic environment more volatile, more costly, and more political. It further finds that the literature remains disproportionately infrastructure-focused, Western-centered, and comparatively weak in addressing second-order political effects.

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