Krótkookresowa prognoza miesięcznych wskaźników inflacji w Polsce na podstawie modelu SARIMA
Short-term forecast of monthly inflation rates in Poland based on the SARIMA model

Summary/Abstract: The article addresses the dynamics of inflation in Poland, with particular emphasis on its inertia and seasonality. The aim of the study is to identify the relationship between the current level of inflation and its values in previous periods, as well as to assess the possibilities of short-term inflation forecasting. The analysis is based on monthly data on the consumer price index for Poland covering the years 2010-2025, published by the Central Statistical Office. An econometric modelling approach using SARIMA models was applied, preceded by stationarity tests and an analysis of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions. The results indicate strong short-term inflation inertia and a significant seasonal structure, accompanied by the gradual dampening of deviations in the longer run. The model shows a good fit to the empirical data and meets key econometric validity criteria, allowing for the formulation of reliable forecasts. Inflation projections up to mid-2026 suggest the continuation of an upward trend, with increasing uncertainty as the forecast horizon extends. The findings point to a high probability that inflation in Poland will remain above the inflation target set by the National Bank of Poland in the medium term.

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