Strategic Blindness in the Sahel: Russian Influence and EU Security
Strategic Blindness in the Sahel: Russian Influence and EU Security

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the evolving security dynamics in the African Sahel and their implications for European Union (EU) security amid the expansion of Russian influence since 2021. It argues that the displacement of EU and Western actors by Russia has reshaped the regional security environment, generating a condition of strategic blindness for the EU, characterised by reduced situational awareness, limited intelligence access, and diminished capacity to shape developments on the ground. The study identifies key transnational threats affecting the EU, including terrorism and violent extremism, irregular migration, organised crime, illicit trafficking, and foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI). The findings suggest that Russia’s growing presence has not stabilised the Sahel but has increased the opacity and complexity of these threats. The article concludes with policy recommendations to enhance EU resilience and strategic engagement in the region.

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