Petrol Fiyatlarıyla Petrol Fiyat Belirsizliği Arasındaki İlişki: Frekans Alanda Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar
The Relationship between Oil Prices and Oil Price Uncertainty: Evidence from The Frequency Domain Causality Test

Summary/Abstract: This study, covering the period 1990M1-2024M7, analyses the relationship between Brent, Dubai and WTI oil prices as well as the average of these prices and oil price uncertainty. In the study, Toda-Yamamoto causality test method is used in the frequency domain. The results show that the effect of oil price uncertainty on oil prices is limited and that this effect creates a significant causality relationship in the long run only for Dubai oil prices. On the other hand, it has been determined that changes in oil prices have a significant causal relationship with oil price uncertainty in both the short and long term. This implies that fluctuations in oil prices have temporary and permanent effects on uncertainty. The findings of the study point to the importance of strategies aimed at reducing volatility in the oil market, while recommending that policymakers strengthen international cooperation to increase market transparency, ensure supply security, and limit speculative movements. Such measures can play a critical role in maintaining stability and reducing uncertainty in the oil market.

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