Election Outcomes – A Case Study of the Regional Assembly Elections in the Małopolskie Voivodeship
Election Outcomes – A Case Study of the Regional Assembly Elections in the Małopolskie Voivodeship

Summary/Abstract: The study aimed to explore the possibility of improving the dominant party’s results in the Małopolska Regional Council elections by modifying electoral district shapes. The method of packing PiS voters was applied to concentrate them in selected districts, increasing the party’s chances of winning more seats while weakening parties balancing on the edge of the electoral threshold. The analysis focuses on identifying potential changes in seat distribution and assessing whether manipulating district boundaries could lead to significant shifts in political representation, including changes in dominant parties. A proprietary software tool with a simulated annealing optimisation algorithm was used for the study. Based on the 2024 election data, it was possible to obtain a better result in Małopolska, gaining two additional seats by adjusting district boundaries. The study highlights the need to refine the algorithm and suggests combining packing with other methods.

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