Synchronization of economic activity and business cycles in Central and Eastern European countries - implications for logistics
Synchronization of economic activity and business cycles in Central and Eastern European countries - implications for logistics

Summary/Abstract: The objective of this paper is to assess the degree of synchronization of economic activity and business cycles in Central and Eastern European countries, with particular emphasis on the role of major economic crises in intensifying this synchronization. The analysis focuses on two key episodes: the global financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic-related economic crisis as periods during which the co-movement of economic activity across countries strengthened significantly. The study covers the period 2006-2021 and is based on monthly data from the OECD database, including the Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) and the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI). The results confirm the existence of coincidence in economic fluctuations among the analyzed CEE countries and demonstrate that cross-country correlations are significantly stronger during crisis periods than during phases of economic expansion. Moreover, successive crises contributed to a unification of the scale, dynamics, and timing of economic activity changes across the region. Beyond their macroeconomic relevance, the findings have important implications for logistics and supply chain management in integrated regional markets, as increased synchronization heightens the likelihood of simultaneous demand and supply fluctuations, directly affecting forecasting accuracy, inventory positioning, transport capacity planning, and cross-border network coordination.

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