Изследване на поведенческите фактори, влияещи на пазара на недвижими имоти в България
Research on Behavioral Factors Influencing the Real Estate Market in Bulgaria

Summary/Abstract: This research analyzes the Bulgarian residential real estate market from 2020 to 2025, identifying it as a unique economic anomaly that deviates from standard theoretical models of price dynamics and market efficiency. While the broader European Union experienced a cooling phase due to the European Central Bank’s restrictive monetary policies, the Bulgarian market demonstrated unprecedented anti-cyclical resilience. Utilizing the Fisher equation, the study reveals a profound structural imbalance: while the Eurozone maintains positive real interest rates, Bulgaria exhibits deeply negative real rates of approximately -2.38%, effectively subsidizing debtors and incentivizing capital migration from depreciating savings into real assets. Beyond macroeconomic fundamentals, the paper explores the "complex architecture" of behavioral biases including herding, anchoring, loss aversion, and mental accounting that shapes the domestic market. It posits that the Bulgarian investor's psyche is conditioned by historical trauma, specifically the 1996–1997 hyperinflation, which transformed real estate into a psychological "safe haven" rather than a mere yielding asset. This cultural preference for ownership is reflected in an 86% homeownership rate, which, coupled with a high volume of uninhabited dwellings, distorts price discovery and sustains artificially high price levels. The study concludes that the market is driven by collective psychology and "mental accounts" of security, warning that a rapid convergence of interest rates upon Eurozone entry remains a critical systemic risk to financial stability.

• Details
• Contents