The Polish Voter: A Sociodemographic Portrait from the 2023 IPSOS Exit Poll
The Polish Voter: A Sociodemographic Portrait from the 2023 IPSOS Exit Poll

Summary/Abstract: This article utilizes exit poll data from IPSOS to examine the sociodemographic determinants of voting behavior in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections. Applying multinomial logistic regression, we examine the independent effects of age, gender, education, occupation, and place of residence on party choice, with PiS as the reference category. The results reveal clear structural divides: younger voters, better-educated voters, and urban voters disproportionately support KO [Koalicja Obywatelska, Civic Coalition], NL [Nowa Lewica, The Left], and, in the case of young men, Konfederacja [Confederation], while older voters, less-educated voters, and rural voters remain PiS's electoral base. Gender effects are significant, with men more inclined toward Konfederacja and women toward NL. Occupational status further differentiates preferences, with business owners leaning toward Konfederacja and pensioners toward PiS. Predicted probability plots illustrate these dynamics and confirm the persistence of class, generational, and spatial cleavages in Polish politics. Methodologically, the study demonstrates the analytical potential of exit poll data, offering a replicable framework for future electoral research in Poland and beyond.

• Details
• Contents