Principles and Methods of Political Forecasting: Theoretical Constructs and Practical Cases
Principles and Methods of Political Forecasting: Theoretical Constructs and Practical Cases

Summary/Abstract: The article explores the methodological and applied foundations of political forecasting as a branch of modern political science. It reveals the content of key forecasting principles - alternativity, systematicity, continuity, and verification - within the context of political processes as dynamic and complex systems. Special attention is devoted to an overview of forecasting methods: extrapolation, analogies, scenario analysis, machine learning, and hybrid approaches. A case study of the Russia-Ukraine war illustrates the practical application of forecasting in a geopolitical pentagon comprising Ukraine, Russia, the US, the West, and the Global South. Electoral forecasting is examined separately as a specialized type of political prediction. The article emphasizes the importance of ethical responsibility, methodological transparency, cognitive flexibility, and reflexivity in forecasting. Practical recommendations are offered for scholars, government forecasting units, think tanks, and institutions of higher education.

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