Математички модел промене броја становника између пописа
A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN CENSUSES

Summary/Abstract: The subject of this paper is an interdisciplinary attempt to construct a scientific mathematical model capable of tracking population dynamics between two population censuses. The development of this model emerged from an aspiration to optimize historiographical methodology and to examine the applicability of mathematical modelling within the social sciences. The mathematical model enabling the monitoring of population change between two censuses was developed on the basis of data drawn from the Statistical Yearbook of the Federal Statistical Office during the Cold War period, using the example of the Yugoslav population. The first part of the paper provides the rationale for the construction of such a scientific model, while the second part presents the process of its formulation and the results obtained. The resulting model potentially enables historiography to produce population projections for periods and regions for which statistical data are unavailable. At the same time, it offers mathematics and physics the opportunity to develop models based on data sets that these disciplines have not previously used for modelling purposes, nor applied in this manner.

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