DÖVİZ KURU ve EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ ÜZERİNE: D-8 ÜLKELERİNDEN KANITLAR
ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATES and ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM D-8 COUNTRIES

Summary/Abstract: This study analyzes the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in D-8 countries for the period 1980-2023. The main objective of the study is to demonstrate the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth. To this purpose, a panel data set consisting of growth, exchange rates, and some control variables has been prepared. The exchange rate was considered as the main independent variable in the model, and other macroeconomic indicators were included in the model as control variables. Random and Fixed effects models were estimated, the best model was determined using the Hausman test, and panel regression analyses were performed. Causality relationships between variables were investigated using the Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel causality test. Findings based on the random effects model show that the effects of the exchange rate on growth are not statistically significant. According to the causality analysis, there is a one-way causality relationship from the exchange rate to economic growth. The results indicate that the exchange rate in D-8 countries may affect economic growth indirectly and with a time lag, rather than directly. Furthermore, it is observed that the unemployment rate and external balance are among the fundamental determinants of growth. In this context, it is suggested that policies aimed at ensuring exchange rate stability, boosting the external balance, and increasing employment be prioritized in order to achieve sustainable growth in D-8 countries.

• Details
• Contents