GEOSPATIAL ESTIMATION OF ROOFTOP SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNICAL POTENTIAL IN SERBIA
GEOSPATIAL ESTIMATION OF ROOFTOP SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNICAL POTENTIAL IN SERBIA

Summary/Abstract: Rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems are essential for meeting the increasing demand for electricity while reducing reliance on fossil fuels, thereby enhancing overall air quality. Yet, for many countries, the geospatial distribution of rooftop PV potential remains poorly quantified, constraining the design of effective policies and grid planning. This study delivers the first nationwide, building-level assessment of rooftop PV in Serbia, integrating Microsoft machine-learning building footprints with Global Solar Atlas irradiance data and a calibrated performance-ratio model on the Google Earth Engine platform. The findings show an upper-bound technical potential of 41.1 GW and 51.5 TWh/year, which is around 40% more than Serbia's current electricity consumption. In Serbia, spatial heterogeneity is present, as cities such as Novi Sad and Leskovac surpass 1 TWh annually, while municipalities in rural areas fall below 20 GWh. The comparison of per-area yield intensity (~250 GWh/km²) in this study exceeds previous estimates in Serbia, while still aligning with global upper-bound studies. Novel contributions include municipal-level mapping across 197 units, integration of prosumer registries, and a social case study demonstrating the role of rooftop PV in alleviating energy poverty. This study takes a novel approach, based on unconventional data, to estimate rooftop PV potential at the level where decisions actually happen. It enables a bottom-up shift in energy policy, empowering local authorities to drive the energy transition independently from centralized energy policy. These findings support the development of more effective local energy plans that align with residents' needs and overcome bureaucratic delays in project approvals.

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