SOCIO-DEMOGRAFSKE KARAKTERISTIKE ŽENA I SISTEMI PODRŠKE KAO POTENCIJALNA DETERMINISTIČKA OSNOVA VISINE FERTILITETA U SRBIJI
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF WOMEN AND SUPPORT SYSTEMS AS A POTENTIAL DETERMINING FACTORS OF THE FERTILITY LEVEL IN SERBIA

Summary/Abstract: The aim of this paper is to examine, based on data collected through field survey research, the significance of women’s socio-demographic characteristics and the institutional and informal support systems in child-rearing for women’s decision to have higher-order births. Childbearing has far-reaching consequences—not only does it affect population size, but it also shapes the age structure, a crucial factor in assessing a country’s future prosperity. On a personal level, childbirth is an important life event and significantly affects many aspects of life, making them more complex once people become parents. In Serbia, the phenomenon of insufficient childbearing has persisted for more than a decade, prompting local researchers to analyse the influence of various possible factors that may serve as a deterministic basis for fertility. In line with established fertility theories and findings from studies of this phenomenon in Western countries facing similar issues, research conducted in Serbia has shown that the socio-demographic characteristics—primarily those of mothers—are significantly correlated with the number of children they will have. However, in such analysis, it is also important not to overlook key contextual factors such as formal and informal support for mothers, which, theoretically, may play a substantial role in family size planning. Therefore, in constructing the data collection instrument, we operationalised all relevant socio-demographic characteristics and support systems associated with the number of children, in order to examine their correlation and potentially identify a deterministic basis for fertility. The central hypothesis posits a positive correlation between the number of children born and the respondent’s current age, education level, employment status, marital status, and satisfaction with informal and institutional support in child rearing. Conversely, a negative correlation is expected with the age at which a woman had her first child—that is, women who had their first child later are expected to have fewer children overall. To examine the correlation among these factors, we created a binary logistic regression model that shows both the presence and strength of these correlations. The analysis identified the following as significant predictors: the respondent’s age (transformed into a dichotomous categorical variable), marital status, age at first childbirth (also transformed into a dichotomous categorical variable), and the perceived importance of kindergartens in balancing work and parenting. Predictors that were expected—based on the theoretical framework—to be significant but turned out not to be, include the respondent’s material status, education level, employment status, and whether or not she received help during the child-rearing period. Regarding the importance of informal support, when this factor was isolated from the model and operationalised through the number of hours that older generations were involved, the results showed that such help does indeed matter. The more help women receive, the more satisfied they are with parenthood and the more likely they are to choose to repeat the experience. In conclusion, while childbearing is ultimately an individual decision influenced by numerous personal factors, the community—through the support it provides—can significantly contribute to the decision to have a larger family.

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