Прогнозування та планування землекористування в умовах трансформації просторових структур і екологічних загроз
Land Use Forecasting and Planning under the Spatial Structure Transformation and Environmental Threats

Summary/Abstract: The article investigates the conceptual foundations of land use forecasting and strategic planning within the active transformation of spatial structures and aggravation of environmental threats that are becoming increasingly noticeable in modern socio-economic systems. It is noted that efficient and stable functioning of the land use system is possible only based on scientifically sound forecasting and comprehensive strategic planning covering various parameters - environmental, economic, social, legal and administrative. It is substantiated that the importance of a comprehensive analysis of the land use development and the external and internal factors impact patterns, on the basis of which a long-term goals and scenarios of spatial development system is formed, is significant. The paper considers a close connection between the analytical stage of research, target forecasting and the procedure of balancing different planned decisions variants, which ensures optimization of managerial actions. The article presents the author’s vision of the land use planning system, which includes mechanisms for operational assessment regarding the state of land resources, modeling of alternative options for their use, and identification of priority strategic and tactical actions for the implementation of sustainable land use practices with due regard for environmental safety. Particular attention is paid to the development of an environmental and economic mechanism for the implementation of such practices, adapted to the conditions of the wartime period, which is characterized by increased risks and restrictions. The importance of consistent alignment of regional land use strategies with national priorities for land protection and achieving a neutral balance of degradation, which is a key factor in ensuring sustainable development of territories, is emphasized. The results of the study can be used to improve approaches to land management, develop and implement regulatory and planning documents, and develop a system for monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of spatial management decisions in the field of land use.

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