Geopolityczne znaczenie Morza Bałtyckiego przed i po rosyjskiej inwazji na Ukrainę w 2022 roku
The Geopolitical Role of the Baltic Sea Before and After the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022

Summary/Abstract: How often has the Baltic Sea functioned as a closed sea, controlled by a dominant power, and how often as an open space for international navigation? This article attempts to answer this question by analysing the evolution of the Baltic’s geopolitical significance before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Employing qualitative comparative methods and a long-term historical perspective, the study draws upon the dichotomy of mare clausum and mare liberum (Selden, 1635; Grotius, 1609) as an analytical framework. The research findings demonstrate that, contrary to appearances, the transformation of the Baltic into a ‘NATO lake’ following Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to the Alliance in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not a novum, but rather a return to a pattern that has historically predominated. Of the nine identified geopolitical phases, the Baltic functioned as a mare clausum in as many as six. The current militarisation of the region, the expansion of NATO’s presence, and the curtailment of Russian influence confirm this historical trend. Contributing to geopolitical research, the article also demonstrates the appropriateness of applying theoretical archetypal types as categories that constitute analytical frameworks enabling the exploration and explanation of geopolitical phenomena.

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