Intelligence Gaps and Inter-Agency Rivalry in the Sahelian Theatre: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin and Northern Nigeria
Intelligence Gaps and Inter-Agency Rivalry in the Sahelian Theatre: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin and Northern Nigeria

Summary/Abstract: Persistent insurgency in the Sahel-Lake Chad region highlights a paradox: extensive security investment yet limited operational success. This study examines how inter-agency rivalry, lack of information sharing, and institutional mistrust among Nigeria’s security and intelligence agencies contribute to the protraction of terrorism in Northern Nigeria. Employing a qualitative-dominant mixed-methods design (2009-2023), including secondary data, declassified reports, media investigations, and semi-structured interviews, the study finds that intelligence fragmentation, driven by bureaucratic competition, leads to deliberate withholding and bureaucratic delays, which in turn cause operational failures. Case studies of the Rann airstrike (2017), the Dapchi abduction (2018), the Shiroro ambush (2022), and the Zamfara raids (2021) illustrate these dynamics. Findings are interpreted through the cyclical Intelligence-Trust-Effectiveness (ITE) Framework, showing that insecurity in the Sahelian theatre is sustained not only by militant capacity but also by institutional weakness. Policy recommendations advocate for a mandatory, civilian-led intelligence fusion cell, trust-building mechanisms, and enhanced regional intelligence fusion under ECOWAS and the MNJTF.

• Details
• Contents