Fueling the Insurgency: Climate-Resource Scarcity and the Persistence of Terrorism in Northern Nigeria
Fueling the Insurgency: Climate-Resource Scarcity and the Persistence of Terrorism in Northern Nigeria

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the causal pathways through which climate change and resource scarcity sustain terrorism in Nigeria’s Sahelian-Lake Chad region. Employing a mixed-method design that integrates panel data (2000-2023) with content analysis of field reports and policy documents, it investigates the interconnections between environmental degradation, livelihood collapse, and violent extremism in Borno, Yobe, Katsina, and Zamfara States. Findings reveal that rising temperatures and declining rainfall aggravate competition over land and water, which, when mediated by governance failures, deepens human insecurity and creates operational opportunities for groups like Boko Haram and ISWAP. The evidence supports an integrated Human and Environmental Security framework, demonstrating that ecological stress erodes state legitimacy and fosters terrorist resilience. The paper concludes that disrupting this cycle requires integrated strategies that synchronize climate adaptation with security governance. Policy implications are directed at security sector actors and regional bodies, highlighting the need to mainstream climate-risk analysis into counter-terrorism and bolster cross-border resource governance under the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) and ECOWAS.

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