THE IMPACT OF BLACK SWAN EVENTS ON MIGRATION INFLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND’S COVID-19 EXPERIENCE
THE IMPACT OF BLACK SWAN EVENTS ON MIGRATION INFLOWS: EVIDENCE FROM POLAND’S COVID-19 EXPERIENCE

Summary/Abstract: This study aims to examine whether the COVID-19 pandemic functionedas a Black Swan event that fundamentally altered international migration flowsinto Poland. Using comprehensive data on residence applications from 229 countriesand country-level entities between 2010 and 2024, we conducted a descriptive year--on-year analysis to identify structural breaks in migration patterns. The resultsshow that the pandemic’s onset corresponded with the lowest migration growth inthe time series, followed by an unprecedented surge in migrant inflows that greatlyexceeded pre-pandemic trends. These findings demonstrate that COVID-19 notonly disrupted but restructured migration dynamics, highlighting the pandemic’srole as a rare, high-impact event with lasting consequences. By applying the BlackSwan framework to human migration, this study provides a novel theoretical lensfor understanding how global shocks can transform mobility systems. These findingshave important implications for migration policy planning and forecasting,suggesting that models must account for rare, high-impact disruptions rather thanrelying solely on historical trend extrapolation.

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