Petrol Fiyatları ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz
The Relationship Between Oil Prices and The Real Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis for Türkiye
Author(s): Sefer Uçak, Jiyan KılıçSubject(s): Business Economy / Management, Energy and Environmental Studies, Economic policy, International relations/trade, Financial Markets
Published by: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Keywords: Real Exchange Rate; Oil Prices; VECM;
Summary/Abstract: The effects of oil prices on exchange rates are undeniable in developing economies whose production structures are dependent on imports such as energy, raw materials and high value-added products. This study explains the relationship between the real exchange rate and oil prices in Turkiye for the period 1994:01-2024:10. According to the unit root tests, both variables are stationary at I(1) level. According to Johansen cointegration test, the series move together in the long run. According to the VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) results, the error correction coefficient of the oil variable is negative and significant. A long-run causality relationship is found between the variables. On the other hand, while none of the lagged values of Oil Prices do not affect Real Exchange Rate in the short run, all lagged values of Real Exchange Rate affect Oil Prices in the short run.
Journal: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
- Issue Year: 23/2025
- Issue No: 02
- Page Range: 241-259
- Page Count: 19
- Language: Turkish
