ПОТЕНЦИАЛНИ ЕФЕКТИ ОТ ЗАКРЪГЛЯВАНЕ НА ЦЕНИТЕ НА ХРАНИТЕЛНИТЕ ПРОДУКТИ ВЪРХУ ИНФЛАЦИЯТА ПРИ ПРИЕМАНЕТО НА ЕВРОТО В РЕПУБЛИКА БЪЛГАРИЯ
POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE ROUNDING OF FOOD PRODUCT PRICES ON INFLATION WITH THE ADOPTION OF THE EURO IN THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA

Summary/Abstract: The paper examines potential quantitative effects from the rounding of prices of food products, non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, as well as on the overall price level with the process of adoption of the euro in the Republic of Bulgaria. Emphasis in two scenarios is placed on some possible effects that can be expected in connection with the application of the rules for rounding of prices after their conversion from Bulgarian lev to euro when applying the fixed exchange rate. The results show that in the pessimistic scenario, the total increase of prices of food products, non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products would be 1.47%. The contribution to the growth of overall inflation is measured at 0.41 percentage points (pp) for the HICP and at 0.51 pp for the CPI. The conclusions correspond to similar studies for Croatia. The results from the optimistic scenario show that the total increase of prices of food products, non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products would be 0.71%. The contribution to the growth of overall inflation is measured at 0.20 pp for the HICP and 0.25 pp for the CPI. However, the estimates are higher than what actually turns out to be the case.

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