Assessment of the Risk of Carrying out a Terrorist Act by an Individual Terrorist during Mass Events
Assessment of the Risk of Carrying out a Terrorist Act by an Individual Terrorist during Mass Events

Summary/Abstract: In the face of escalating individual wolf terrorist threats at mass gatherings, this research proposes a novel, integrative risk assessment framework. By dissecting the interplay between psychological, social, and environmental factors, the study highlights the inadequacies of traditional counterterrorism measures that rely on actuarial, clinical, and structured professional judgment approaches. Through a mixed methods analysis combining qualitative insights from expert opinions with quantitative data from extensive datasets, the research unveils a predictive framework aimed at enhancing the proactive capabilities of law enforcement. Key findings underscore the critical role of understanding individual actors’ psychological profiles and behavioral tendencies, alongside the identification of situational triggers, to fortify security measures at public events. The study advocates for an adaptive, iterative evaluation process that accommodates the dynamic nature of terrorism, emphasizing the synergy between technological advancements and human expertise in predicting and mitigating potential threats. This research contributes to the counterterrorism discourse by offering a comprehensive framework that addresses the complex dynamics of individual wolf terrorism, ultimately aiming to bolster early detection and rapid response strategies, thus mitigating the risk of attacks on mass gatherings.

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