THE END OF KARABAKH AND THE CHANGE OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE TRANSCAUCASUS
THE END OF KARABAKH AND THE CHANGE OF GEOPOLITICAL AND SECURITY CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE TRANSCAUCASUS

Summary/Abstract: This paper observes “defrosting” of Azeri – Armenian conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh region in September 2023 which resulted in Azerbaijan’s complete victory and reinstalment of its control over this breakway region. Result of this rivalry significantly changed the complete geopolitical and security circumstances in the Transcaucasus and led to a new balance of power between local, regional and big powers in this region. After the detaliled presentation of the course of conflict in early autumn of 2023 and its outcomes, the paper provides a brief overview of the history of geopolitics of the Caucasus and Transcaucasia and the long-term rivalry of Armenians and Azeris that led to Karabakh conflict. Central part of the paper observes post-Cold War competition in Transcaucasia between main geopolitical players in the region - Russia, Turkey, Iran and the West and their relations with local small states. Final part of the Paper is reserved for the current geostrategic changes in Transcaucasia after the 2023 conflict, that is, the newly established balance of power in the region and, in concluding remarks, gives the predictions of its durability and sustainability.

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