Rethinking Future Conflicts: The Cyber Grey Zone From the Russian Perspective
Rethinking Future Conflicts: The Cyber Grey Zone From the Russian Perspective

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the concept of the ‘grey zone’ in international conflict, with a particular focus on its application in cyberspace. The grey zone refers to non-conventional strategies employed by states to achieve strategic objectives without escalating to overt warfare. The study highlights the evolving nature of grey-zone activities, driven by technological advancements and increasing reliance on cyberspace, which has introduced novel vulnerabilities and opportunities for state actors. Adopting a neoclassical realist framework, the article argues that the unique characteristics of cyberspace – its borderless nature, lack of territorial constraints, and difficulties in attribution – render it an attractive domain for conducting grey-zone operations. By minimizing the risk of escalation while maximizing strategic impact, state actors can pursue their objectives with relative impunity. Through a critical analysis of scholarly literature, public reports, and governmental sources, this study identifies the strategic assumptions underpinning Russia’s cyber operations and assesses their effectiveness in achieving specific policy goals. The findings suggest that while Russia’s cyber activities reflect a sophisticated understanding of the grey zone, the escalation to conventional warfare in 2022 indicates a failure to meet objectives solely through ambiguous actions.

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