Velika strategija Sjedinjenih Država – da li je kucnuo čas za uravnotežavanje s obale?
The Grand Strategy of the United States – Is It Time for Offshore Balancing?

Summary/Abstract: As the unipolar moment wanes and the world approaches multipolarity, academic debates are intensifying about the future grand strategy of the United States. This paper contributes to that debate by analysing offshore balancing, a grand strategy proposal from the neorealist academic camp. The key research question addressed is whether offshore balancing is the most appropriate strategy for pursuing the vital national interests of the United States today. Using the Persian Gulf, one of three key regions for US national interests, as a case study, this paper argues that the time is not ripe for offshore balancing. This strategy shares similar shortcomings with the current deep engagement strategy: it occasionally ignores historical lessons and present realities; it overlooks the dangers of a power vacuum and the changed strategic context resulting from an American withdrawal; it places excessive trust in alliances whose effectiveness is often doubted even by realists; and it fails to account for the emergence of asymmetric threats in the 21st century, which are difficult to address quickly and effectively. Finally, the paper contends that, while offshore balancing may become the US’s grand strategy by 2050,selective engagement will likely take precedence until then.

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