Historical Analogies in Foreign Policy Decision Making: Case of Serbia – U.S. Relations After 2000 Cover Image

Употреба историјских аналогија у процесу доношења спољнополитичких одлука на примеру односа Србије и Сједињених Америчких Држава после 2000. године
Historical Analogies in Foreign Policy Decision Making: Case of Serbia – U.S. Relations After 2000

Author(s): Marko Dašić, Stevan Nedeljković, Dragan Živojinović
Subject(s): Recent History (1900 till today), International relations/trade, Cold-War History, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Институт за политичке студије
Keywords: international relations; foreign policy; Serbia; United States of America; analogies in foreign policy decision making; Cold War; World War I; shadow of the future; logic of inevitability; logic of et

Summary/Abstract: When faced with an unknown situation or find themselves in un familiar field, politicians rely mainly on use of the analogies in decision making process. Guided by the logic of simplifying, they principally use historical analogies. The main purpose of such methodological en deavour is to perform better and get more comprehensive understand ing of a new issue. The main thesis of this paper is, first of all, failure of Serbian government to improve relations with United States through use of two specific historical analogies after 2000. It turned out that those analogies were inadequate and insufficient because of considera bly changed circumstances. The first analogy refers to Yugoslavia–US strategic partnership after the conflict between Tito and Stalin. The oth er one concerns the alliance of Serbia and US during World War I and efforts of Serbia to improve todayʼs bilateral relations in that manner. The importance of using these analogies is especially visible in Serbian exertions to gain kind of favour of US in the long process of dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina. The authors considered that both anal ogies were misinterpreted mainly because of transformed environment. Each historical epoch is unique. The second problem refers to diamet rically opposite narratives which are embedded in foreign policies of Serbia and US. According to the theoretical matrix of Timothy Snyder, these foreign policies rely on two contrasted logics: logic of inevitabil ity and logic of eternity. The possible solution lies in the shadow of the future, if we listen to Robert Axelrod. More precisely, we need to con tinue our cooperation because of good relations in the past and despite certain obstacles nowadays.

  • Issue Year: 2018
  • Issue No: 4
  • Page Range: 119-139
  • Page Count: 21
  • Language: Serbian