Polityka pieniężna NBP a ceny produktów rolnych w czasie COVID-19
The monetary policy of the Polish National Bank (NBP) and the purchase prices of agricultural produce during the COVID-19 pandemic

Summary/Abstract: The aim of the study is to assess the impact of the monetary policy conducted by the National Bank of Poland on the dynamics of purchase prices for agricultural produce. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the NBP’s policy became exceptionally lenient. The immediate consequence of such actions was a dynamic increase in the money supply. The delayed effect was the emergence of significant inflationary pressures in the Polish economy. An analysis of annual data indicates that in the years 2019–2022 the impact of the increase in the money supply on fluctuations in the prices of agricultural produce was delayed by about one year. On the other hand, econometric analysis based on monthly published yearon-year increments, after removing trends, indicates that the influence of the growth of the M1 money supply on changes in agricultural prices was strongest with an 18-month delay. The change in the M1 aggregate explained 40% of the changes in purchase prices. The NBP’s impact on agricultural prices was both direct and indirect through its influence on the growth of production costs in Polish agriculture.

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