Corelația între politica monetară și evoluția cursului de schimb
The correlation between monetary policy and the evolution of exchange rate

Summary/Abstract: The exchange rate represents the price of a monetary unit from a certain country, expressed in monetary units of another country. Monetary policy indicators have the greatest impact on the evolution of this exchange rate. The purpose of this research is to highlight how monetary policy variables influence the evolution of the exchange rate. The research uses Granger causalality tests and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model applied to Romania's data. These data include independent variables such as the monetary policy interest rate, inflation rate, and required minimum reserves, while the dependent variable is the exchange rate. The database used comes from the National Bank of Romania and The Global Economy, with monthly time series and an 11-year period to provide a more comprehensive and clear picture of the econometric model. The analyzed period is January 2012 - December 2022, including 132 observations.

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