Socijaldemokracija u Hrvatskoj: ideološka samoidentifikacija i biračke preferencije
Social Democracy in Croatia: Ideological Self-Identification and Voter Preferences

Summary/Abstract: The article focuses on social democracy in Croatia and on electoral demand ‎in the context of the general crisis and declining political support for social‎democracy. The paper seeks to contribute to the understanding of the state of ‎social democracy in Croatia, by examining the relationship between voter ideological ‎self-identification and party preferences regarding social democracy ‎and voting for the SDP. The analysis uses data obtained through field surveys ‎from 1999 to 2020, to identify factors that influence social democratic voters‎ to vote for the party that represents this political ideology – the SDP. The paper ‎tests a generalized linear mixed model in which survey years are treated as random‎ effects. Self-identification on the left-right scale, as well as the attitude on ‎abortion are found to be significant factors explaining why some social democrats ‎vote for the SDP and others do not, with SDP voters leaning towards more ‎left-wing positions and being more likely to support a woman’s free choice on‎ abortion when compared to other social democratic voters. The random effect‎ of survey years has shown low variability, but the amplification of the impact ‎of the fixed effects is evident for 2003 and 2012, where we can see fragmentation ‎and consolidation, respectively, of social democratic voter support for SDP.‎ The model points to the importance of ideological self-identification for voter‎ orientation even among voters from the same ideological camp.‎

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