How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices
How to Anticipate Recession via Transport Indices
Author(s): Petr Jakubík, Seyit Kerimkhulle, Saida TeleuovaSubject(s): Economy
Published by: Ekonomický ústav SAV a Prognostický ústav SAV
Keywords: Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments; logistic growth; stochastic dynamics; economic growth;
Summary/Abstract: This article focuses on transport industry development as a leading economic indicator. We investigate the dynamics of growth in the Cass Freight Index: Expenditures and Shipments, capturing the US transport industry, and apply a system of logistic models of population growth and competition to transport industry indices. We show that the constructed structure identifies the signs of a US economic downturn/recession well in advance.
Journal: Ekonomický časopis
- Issue Year: 65/2017
- Issue No: 10
- Page Range: 972-990
- Page Count: 19
- Language: English