Критические вызовы и возможности для развития российско-китайского инвестиционного сотрудничества (на примере химической отрасли)
Critical Challenges and Opportunities for the Development of Russian-Chinese Investment Cooperation (Case Study of the Chemical Industry)

Summary/Abstract: Under unprecedented sanctions pressure, Russia’s chemical industry has become critical to the country’s technological sovereignty and national security. The withdrawal of Western investors and technology partners has increased Russia’s reliance on cooperation with China. However, Chinese investment creates both new opportunities and significant risks. This study identifies the main barriers to Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia’s chemical industry and examines opportunities for strengthening bilateral investment cooperation. The analysis combines systemic, structural, and statistical methods, using data from the Central Bank of Russia, Rosstat, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the Eurasian Development Bank, industry sources, and academic literature for 2014–2025. The study identifies three major structural paradoxes: investment growth is accompanied by greater technological dependence on Chinese equipment; strategic cooperation coexists with competition in global petrochemical markets; and import substitution remains constrained by dependence on critical imported components. Five key barriers to FDI are identified: sanctions-related isolation, dependence on imported equipment, competition with China, high capital costs, and limited diversification. To address these challenges, the study proposes diversifying international partnerships, strengthening technological capabilities in critical areas, introducing anti-dumping measures within the Eurasian Economic Union, subsidizing interest rates, and providing tax incentives for high-value-added production. The findings can support government industrial policy, Russia–China investment strategies, and joint project planning by development institutions and chemical companies.

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